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Quote Teardown 02  /  HVAC replacement, Phoenix, AZ

$14,850 for a 4-ton AC in Phoenix. Who decided it was 4 tons?

Toshikatsu Oga  /  October 9, 2026
An HVAC technician kneeling at an outdoor air conditioning condenser beside a house, checking it with refrigerant gauges.
Illustrative photo. Not the house, the crew or the quote in this issue.
  1. The quote
  2. The one line to ask about
  3. The arithmetic
  4. What to ask the contractor
  5. What this does not establish
  6. Questions
  7. Sources

The equipment line says 4 tons, sized to match the existing unit. Nothing on the quote shows a load calculation. The model code many cities adopt, the International Residential Code, says equipment is sized with ACCA Manual S based on loads calculated with ACCA Manual J or another approved method. Ask for the calculation before you sign.

$14,850 for a 4-ton system. Who decided it was 4 tons? Ledger of the illustrative quote with the line to ask about marked.

The card for this issue. The quote is illustrative, written for teaching; it is not any real contractor's quote.

The quote

Illustrative quote. HVAC replacement, Phoenix, AZ.

LineQuoted
Heat pump and air handler, 4 tons, 16 SEER2, sized to match existingNo load calculation listed$9,950
Labor, 2 technicians x 2 days$3,400
Line set, pad, disconnect, thermostat$1,050
Permit and haul-away of old unit$450
Total$14,850

The one line to ask about

Heat pump and air handler, 4 tons, sized to match existing: $9,950

Tonnage sets the price of the biggest line, and "match existing" only repeats whatever size went in last time, right or wrong. Insulation, windows and duct work changed since then all move the load.

Section M1401.3 of the 2021 International Residential Code reads: heating and cooling equipment "shall be sized in accordance with ACCA Manual S or other approved sizing methodologies based on building loads calculated in accordance with ACCA Manual J or other approved heating and cooling calculation methodologies." Whether your city adopted that section, and how it treats a replacement, is a question for your building department.

The labor line can be set against wages, but only as plain wages. Arizona has no published loading rule that we use, so the BLS figures below exclude the contractor's insurance, payroll taxes, truck, overhead and profit.

The arithmetic

  1. Labor hours: 2 technicians x 2 days x 8 hours = 32
  2. BLS wage, heating, air conditioning and refrigeration mechanics and installers (SOC 49-9021), Phoenix metro, May 2025: $29.91 mean, $39.99 at the 90th percentile
  3. Plain wages for 32 hours: $957 to $1,280
  4. Quoted labor: $3,400, or $106.25 per hour. The difference is the contractor's insurance, taxes, overhead and profit, plus anything else in the line. No public rule says how large it should be in Arizona.

Public numbers used above:

  • $29.91: HVAC mechanics and installers (SOC 49-9021), Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, mean hourly wage, May 2025. Source
  • $39.99: HVAC mechanics and installers (SOC 49-9021), Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, 90th percentile hourly wage, May 2025. Source
  • M1401.3: Sizing by ACCA Manual S on loads by ACCA Manual J or other approved methods. Source

What to ask the contractor

Copy this into a text or an email. A contractor with a reason for each number can answer in a minute.

Before I decide, could you send:
1. The Manual J load calculation (or the method you used) showing this house needs 4 tons.
2. The Manual S equipment selection, or the model numbers and their capacity at our design temperature.
3. Whether the permit line covers the city's mechanical permit, and the permit number once it's pulled.
4. What the $3,400 labor line includes besides installation hours.

What this does not establish

It does not show that 4 tons is wrong. A load calculation may land on the same size. It shows that the quote does not say how the size was chosen, and size sets the price of the largest line. The wage figures are averages of what technicians are paid, not billing rates.

Your own quote

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Questions

Do I need a Manual J load calculation for a replacement AC?

Ask your city. The International Residential Code, Section M1401.3, calls for sizing with Manual S on loads from Manual J or another approved method. Adoption, and how it applies to replacements, varies by city.

What if the contractor won't run a load calculation?

Ask how they chose the size, in writing. A contractor who sized it carefully can explain it. A quote that only says "match existing" has not explained it.

Sources

Every public number on this page links to the record it comes from. Wages were looked up in USCCDB, which carries the BLS file as published. Statutes, codes and agency pages are quoted as published on October 9, 2026; check the source for changes.

  1. International Code Council, 2021 International Residential Code, Chapter 14, Section M1401.3 Equipment and appliance sizing
  2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, metropolitan area data (oesm25ma.zip)
  3. United States Construction Cost Database (USCCDB) v1.0, doi:10.5281/zenodo.22979157, CC BY 4.0

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